Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc / Ma VRTX

Revenue Intelligence Report • 53 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc / Ma has a forecasted full-year revenue of $12B, a +55.2% year-over-year change, based on 53 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D (elasticity 0.04x) and SG&A (elasticity 2.48x). The ARDL model has 16.8% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

At 16.8% MAPE, the model captures Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc / Ma's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. R&D investment shows a 0.04x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 0.04% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 2.48x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$12.3B
+55.2% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.04x
SG&A Elasticity
2.48x
Model Accuracy
16.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.0B vs the actual $2.1B — an error of 43.1%.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($2.1B) came in 43% below the spending-based forecast ($3.0B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.

Revenue Forecast

VRTX Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 2022 $3.0B $2.1B $1.9B – $4.8B +74.1% ✓ In range
Q3 2022 $2.8B $1.4B – $5.3B +54.6%
Q4 2022 $2.9B $1.3B – $6.5B +48.4%
Q1 2023 $3.2B $1.3B – $8.0B +53.4%
Q2 2023 $3.4B $1.2B – $9.6B +63.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc / Ma's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 0.9957 -0.4% In line with trend 13
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.1245 +12.5% +12.5% above trend 13
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9233 -7.7% -7.7% below trend 13
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0327 +3.3% +3.3% above trend 13

How Spending Drives Revenue

VRTX Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 53 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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