Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Exxon Mobil Corporation's revenue is primarily driven by its operational efficiency and market conditions, with a significant negative impact from SG&A spending, which yields a long-run revenue decline of $94.10 for every dollar spent. Despite a recent quarterly revenue of $82.3 billion, the company faces a challenging outlook with a forecasted FY revenue of $280 billion, representing a 15.7% year-over-year decline. The model's accuracy, indicated by a 7.7% MAPE and a close holdout test prediction, suggests a reliable revenue trend analysis. Investors should consider the implications of spending efficiency and market dynamics on future performance.

Next FY Revenue

$280.13B

-15.7% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$-94.10 per $1

Model Accuracy

7.7% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $81B vs the actual $82B — an error of 1.8%.

⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Note: Exxon Mobil Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$81B	$82B	$67B – $95B	-3.2%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$77B		$57B – $96B	-7.5%
Q3 2026	$75B		$51B – $99B	-7.8%
Q4 2026	$65B		$37B – $93B	-23.7%
Q1 2027	$63B		$32B – $94B	-23.4%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch