Adobe Inc. ADBE
Revenue Intelligence Report • 58 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Adobe Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $26B, a +9.7% year-over-year change, based on 58 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($3.12 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.8% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Adobe Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.8% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $3.12 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$26.1B
+9.7% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$3.12 per $1
Model Accuracy
2.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $6.1B vs the actual $6.2B — an error of 2.1%.
Note:
Adobe Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $6.1B | $6.2B | $5.9B – $6.2B | +8.2% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $6.3B | $6.1B – $6.5B | +9.9% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $6.4B | $6.2B – $6.7B | +9.7% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $6.6B | $6.3B – $6.9B | +10.2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $6.8B | $6.4B – $7.1B | +9.3% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Adobe Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0044 | +0.4% | In line with trend | 7 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.005 | +0.5% | In line with trend | 9 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0004 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 19 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9951 | -0.5% | In line with trend | 19 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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