Applied Materials Inc /De AMAT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 57 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-26

Applied Materials Inc /De's latest quarterly revenue is $9.1B for the period ending 2026-07-26. The model projects $35.7B across the next four quarters (+15.7% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 11.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-26. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$35.7B
+15.7% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$12.55 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$17.86 per $1
Training Fit
3.5% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $8.03B vs the actual $9.12B — an error of 11.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

AMAT Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-07-26		 $8.03B $9.12B $7.64B–$8.43B +10.0% ✗ Outside range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-10-26		 $8.30B $7.75B–$8.86B +22.1%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-26		 $8.52B $7.84B–$9.20B +21.4%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-04-26		 $9.39B $8.61B–$10.18B +18.7%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-07-26		 $9.46B $8.58B–$10.34B +3.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Applied Materials Inc /De's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Nov–Jan) 1.0052 +0.5% In line with trend 13
FQ2 (Feb–Apr) 1.0029 +0.3% In line with trend 13
FQ3 (May–Jul) 1.0079 +0.8% In line with trend 13
FQ4 (Aug–Oct) 1.027 +2.7% In line with trend 13

Spending and Revenue

AMAT Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 57 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.0421x • R&D elasticity: 0.3528x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 57 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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