On Semiconductor Corporation ON

Revenue Intelligence Report • 55 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-03

On Semiconductor Corporation's latest quarterly revenue is $1.6B for the period ending 2026-07-03. The model projects $6.0B across the next four quarters (-3.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 4.3%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-03. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$5.98B
-3.6% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$11.21 per $1
Training Fit
4.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.54B vs the actual $1.60B — an error of 4.3%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Note: On Semiconductor Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. The model uses the available expense measure without a separate R&D term.

Revenue Forecast

ON Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-07-03		 $1.54B $1.60B $1.38B–$1.69B +4.5% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-10-03		 $1.51B $1.30B–$1.73B -2.4%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2027-01-03		 $1.47B $1.21B–$1.73B -3.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-04-03		 $1.50B $1.20B–$1.80B -1.1%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-07-03		 $1.49B $1.16B–$1.83B -6.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture On Semiconductor Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9903 -1.0% In line with trend 13
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 1.0058 +0.6% In line with trend 12
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0174 +1.7% In line with trend 12
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9864 -1.4% In line with trend 13

Spending and Revenue

ON Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 55 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.9688x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 55 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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