Arista Networks, inc. ANET

Revenue Intelligence Report • 53 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Arista Networks, inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $3.0B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $15.8B across the next four quarters (+49.5% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 1.2%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The GAM forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$15.8B
+49.5% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.95x
SG&A Elasticity
1.59x
Training Fit
3.0% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $3.00B vs the actual $3.04B — an error of 1.2%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

ANET Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $3.00B $3.04B $2.61B–$3.44B +36.1% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $3.36B $2.82B–$4.01B +45.8%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $3.78B $3.09B–$4.62B +51.8%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $4.07B $3.21B–$5.16B +50.3%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $4.54B $3.46B–$5.97B +49.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Arista Networks, inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.996 -0.4% In line with trend 13
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9908 -0.9% In line with trend 13
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 1.0058 +0.6% In line with trend 13
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 0.9947 -0.5% In line with trend 13

Spending and Revenue

ANET Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 53 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.0724x • R&D elasticity: 0.518x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.
Enhanced forecast: The time-varying model (GAM) was selected using training fit, before evaluating the withheld quarter. Its holdout error is -1.2%.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: GAM; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 53 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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