What is PANW's forecasted revenue?

Palo Alto Networks, Inc is forecasted to generate $12.7B in next-four-quarter revenue, representing +10.6% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the PANW revenue forecast model?

The model has 2.4% training MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $2.7B versus the actual $3.4B.

Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW

Revenue Intelligence Report • 60 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-31

Palo Alto Networks, Inc's latest quarterly revenue is $3.4B for the period ending 2026-07-31. The model projects $12.7B across the next four quarters (+10.6% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 19.4%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-31. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters

$12.7B

+10.6% YoY

R&D Elasticity

0.41x

SG&A Elasticity

0.74x

Training Fit

2.4% MAPE

Retrospective holdout (Q4 FY2026): The model predicted $2.75B vs the actual $3.41B — an error of 19.4%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($3.4B) came in 19% above the spending-based forecast ($2.7B). This suggests that Palo Alto Networks, Inc's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 FY2026 Period end 2026-07-31	$2.75B	$3.41B	$2.60B–$2.91B	+8.4%	✗ Outside range
Q1 FY2027 Period end 2026-10-31	$3.31B		$3.05B–$3.58B	+33.6%
Q2 FY2027 Period end 2027-01-31	$2.86B		$2.59B–$3.16B	+10.3%
Q3 FY2027 Period end 2027-04-30	$3.50B		$3.13B–$3.92B	+16.7%
Q4 FY2027 Period end 2027-07-31	$3.03B		$2.67B–$3.45B	-11.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Palo Alto Networks, Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Aug–Oct)	0.9835	-1.7%	In line with trend	14
FQ2 (Nov–Jan)	0.9908	-0.9%	In line with trend	14
FQ3 (Feb–Apr)	1.0004	+0.0%	In line with trend	14
FQ4 (May–Jul)	1.0292	+2.9%	In line with trend	13

Spending and Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 60 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.2626x • R&D elasticity: -0.0604x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

More in AI Infrastructure

SMCI LRCX AVGO DDOG NVDA ON ANET AMAT