Nvidia Corp NVDA

Revenue Intelligence Report • 65 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-07-26

Nvidia Corp's latest quarterly revenue is $96.2B for the period ending 2026-07-26. The model projects $516B across the next four quarters (+70.4% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 9.0%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-07-26. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$516.4B
+70.4% YoY
R&D Elasticity
1.43x
SG&A Elasticity
1.73x
Training Fit
8.1% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2027): The model predicted $87.59B vs the actual $96.22B — an error of 9.0%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

NVDA Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2026-07-26		 $87.59B $96.22B $70.26B–$109.20B +87.4% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2026-10-26		 $106.73B $78.13B–$145.78B +87.2%
Q4 FY2027
Period end 2027-01-26		 $124.45B $84.94B–$182.33B +82.7%
Q1 FY2028
Period end 2027-04-26		 $138.71B $89.24B–$215.60B +70.0%
Q2 FY2028
Period end 2027-07-26		 $146.48B $89.46B–$239.84B +52.2%
🎙️

Latest Earnings Call

Q4 2026
Colette M. Kress

Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President, NVIDIA Corp. .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

View full transcript → 65 sections · 10054 words

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Nvidia Corp's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Feb–Apr) 0.9998 -0.0% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (May–Jul) 1.0128 +1.3% In line with trend 15
FQ3 (Aug–Oct) 1.0391 +3.9% +3.9% above trend 15
FQ4 (Nov–Jan) 0.9782 -2.2% In line with trend 16

Spending and Revenue

NVDA Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 65 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.9041x • R&D elasticity: -0.431x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 65 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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