Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 26 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Palantir Technologies Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.9B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $13.4B across the next four quarters (+117.2% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 2.1%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$13.4B
+117.2% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.06x
SG&A Elasticity
2.46x
Training Fit
0.8% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.90B vs the actual $1.94B — an error of 2.1%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.

Revenue Forecast

PLTR Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.90B $1.94B $1.85B–$1.94B +88.9% ✓ In range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $2.33B $2.26B–$2.40B +97.2%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $2.93B $2.82B–$3.04B +108.3%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $3.63B $3.47B–$3.79B +122.2%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $4.49B $4.27B–$4.71B +131.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Palantir Technologies Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9995 -0.0% In line with trend 6
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9988 -0.1% In line with trend 5
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.997 -0.3% In line with trend 5
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0054 +0.5% In line with trend 5

Spending and Revenue

PLTR Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association with a 1% change in spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 26 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.2996x • R&D elasticity: -0.0877x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (log-log) with 26 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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