Datadog, Inc. DDOG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 32 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-06-30

Datadog, Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $1.1B for the period ending 2026-06-30. The model projects $4.8B across the next four quarters (+22.1% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 6.7%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-06-30. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$4.84B
+22.1% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$21.00 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$-19.49 per $1
Training Fit
1.2% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q2 FY2026): The model predicted $1.05B vs the actual $1.12B — an error of 6.7%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
⚠ Model limitation: One or more estimated spending associations are negative. These observational coefficients do not establish a causal return on spending.

Revenue Forecast

DDOG Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q2 FY2026
Period end 2026-06-30		 $1.05B $1.12B $1.04B–$1.05B +26.5% ✗ Outside range
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-09-30		 $1.09B $1.08B–$1.10B +23.5%
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-12-31		 $1.15B $1.14B–$1.16B +21.0%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-03-31		 $1.29B $1.28B–$1.30B +28.1%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-06-30		 $1.31B $1.29B–$1.32B +16.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Datadog, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Jan–Mar) 0.9979 -0.2% In line with trend 7
FQ2 (Apr–Jun) 0.9994 -0.1% In line with trend 6
FQ3 (Jul–Sep) 0.9948 -0.5% In line with trend 7
FQ4 (Oct–Dec) 1.0017 +0.2% In line with trend 7

Spending and Revenue

DDOG Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 32 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: -0.4592x • R&D elasticity: 0.7519x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 32 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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