Broadcom Inc. AVGO

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-10-14 • Data through 2026-08-02

Broadcom Inc.'s latest quarterly revenue is $29.6B for the period ending 2026-08-02. The model projects $117B across the next four quarters (+31.8% versus the preceding four quarters). The forecast uses SG&A data; model selection and estimation exclude the latest quarter, whose retrospective holdout error is 24.9%. These are statistical associations, not estimates of the causal effect of spending.

Investment Thesis

The ARDL forecast is based on reported revenue and SG&A data through 2026-08-02. Training MAPE measures fit to historical data; the separately reported holdout error measures a withheld quarter. Spending coefficients describe associations and do not establish causation.

Next 4 Quarters
$117.4B
+31.8% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$15.79 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$18.20 per $1
Training Fit
2.8% MAPE
Retrospective holdout (Q3 FY2026): The model predicted $22.23B vs the actual $29.59B — an error of 24.9%.
Retrospective one-quarter holdout: model fitting and selection exclude this quarter. Historical inputs use the latest available restatements, so this is not a preserved real-time forecast.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($30B) came in 25% above the spending-based forecast ($22B). This suggests that Broadcom Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

AVGO Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 FY2026
Period end 2026-08-02		 $22.23B $29.59B $21.72B–$22.74B +39.3% ✗ Outside range
Q4 FY2026
Period end 2026-11-02		 $26.34B $25.63B–$27.06B +46.2%
Q1 FY2027
Period end 2027-02-02		 $27.45B $26.57B–$28.33B +42.1%
Q2 FY2027
Period end 2027-05-02		 $31.60B $30.59B–$32.62B +42.4%
Q3 FY2027
Period end 2027-08-02		 $32.05B $30.91B–$33.18B +8.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Broadcom Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Dec–Feb) 1.0005 +0.1% In line with trend 8
FQ2 (Mar–May) 0.9626 -3.7% -3.7% below trend 9
FQ3 (Jun–Aug) 1.0093 +0.9% In line with trend 8
FQ4 (Sep–Nov) 1.0023 +0.2% In line with trend 8

Spending and Revenue

AVGO Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue association per $1 of spending over subsequent quarters. These estimates describe historical associations and do not establish causation.

Time-Varying Spending Associations

Time-varying analysis: A penalized spline model (GAM) tracks the association between log spending and log revenue over 38 quarters. Its coefficients describe conditional historical associations, not causal returns on spending.
Current SG&A elasticity: 0.2305x • R&D elasticity: 0.0534x
The model-term chart shows relative absolute term magnitudes. Its percentages are not shares of revenue or causal contributions to growth.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. SEC source data. Forecast model: ARDL; spending associations: ARDL (linear) with 38 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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