Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD
Revenue Intelligence Report • 52 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $44B, a +26.9% year-over-year change, based on 52 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D (elasticity 0.49x) and SG&A (elasticity 0.93x). The ARDL model has 7.8% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (7.8% MAPE), suggesting Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D investment shows a 0.49x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 0.49% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.93x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $9.2B | $10B | $7.6B – $11B | +20.0% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $9.9B | $7.6B – $13B | +32.7% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $11B | $7.7B – $15B | +38.3% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $11B | $7.8B – $17B | +22.9% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $12B | $8.0B – $18B | +17.8% |
Latest Earnings Call
Q4 2025Seasonal Factors
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0672 | +6.7% | +6.7% above trend | 14 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0169 | +1.7% | In line with trend | 10 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9281 | -7.2% | -7.2% below trend | 13 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9984 | -0.2% | In line with trend | 13 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
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