Arista Networks, inc. ANET
Revenue Intelligence Report • 50 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Arista Networks, inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $11B, a +27.2% year-over-year change, based on 50 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D (elasticity 0.96x) and SG&A (elasticity 1.59x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.6% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.6% MAPE), suggesting Arista Networks, inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D investment shows a 0.96x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 0.96% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.59x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.4B | $2.5B | $2.2B – $2.7B | +26.0% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $2.6B | $2.3B – $3.0B | +28.8% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.8B | $2.3B – $3.2B | +25.0% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $3.0B | $2.4B – $3.6B | +27.9% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $3.2B | $2.6B – $3.9B | +27.3% |
Seasonal Factors
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0127 | +1.3% | In line with trend | 12 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0034 | +0.3% | In line with trend | 12 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9607 | -3.9% | -3.9% below trend | 12 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0183 | +1.8% | In line with trend | 12 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
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