Arista Networks, inc. ANET

Revenue Intelligence Report • 50 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Arista Networks, inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $11B, a +27.2% year-over-year change, based on 50 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D (elasticity 0.96x) and SG&A (elasticity 1.59x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.6% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.6% MAPE), suggesting Arista Networks, inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D investment shows a 0.96x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 0.96% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.59x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$11.5B
+27.2% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.96x
SG&A Elasticity
1.59x
Model Accuracy
3.6% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.4B vs the actual $2.5B — an error of 2.2%.

Revenue Forecast

ANET Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $2.4B $2.5B $2.2B – $2.7B +26.0% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $2.6B $2.3B – $3.0B +28.8%
Q3 2026 $2.8B $2.3B – $3.2B +25.0%
Q4 2026 $3.0B $2.4B – $3.6B +27.9%
Q1 2027 $3.2B $2.6B – $3.9B +27.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Arista Networks, inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0127 +1.3% In line with trend 12
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.0034 +0.3% In line with trend 12
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9607 -3.9% -3.9% below trend 12
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0183 +1.8% In line with trend 12

How Spending Drives Revenue

ANET Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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