Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. APD
Revenue Intelligence Report • 53 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $12B, a -2.3% year-over-year change, based on 53 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.7% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.7% MAPE), suggesting Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-0.24x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue.
Next FY Revenue
$11.7B
-2.3% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.24x
SG&A Elasticity
-0.19x
Model Accuracy
3.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.0B vs the actual $3.1B — an error of 3.0%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.0B | $3.1B | $2.7B – $3.3B | +0.8% | ✓ In range |
| Q4 2025 | $3.0B | $2.6B – $3.4B | +1.4% | ||
| Q1 2026 | $2.9B | $2.5B – $3.5B | +0.7% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $2.9B | $2.4B – $3.5B | -3.9% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.9B | $2.3B – $3.6B | -7.2% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9908 | -0.9% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9841 | -1.6% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0179 | +1.8% | In line with trend | 17 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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