Booking Holdings Inc. BKNG
Revenue Intelligence Report • 34 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Booking Holdings Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $15B, a +19.8% year-over-year change, based on 34 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.70x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.9% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.9% MAPE), suggesting Booking Holdings Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.70x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$15.2B
+19.8% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.70x
Model Accuracy
3.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.0B vs the actual $2.8B — an error of 5.5%.
Note:
Booking Holdings Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2017 | $3.0B | $2.8B | $2.7B – $3.3B | +25.9% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2018 | $3.0B | $2.6B – $3.5B | +25.2% | ||
| Q3 2018 | $3.7B | $3.1B – $4.4B | +22.9% | ||
| Q4 2018 | $5.0B | $4.1B – $6.1B | +12.7% | ||
| Q1 2019 | $3.4B | $2.8B – $4.3B | +23.0% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Booking Holdings Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0164 | +1.6% | In line with trend | 8 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0005 | +0.1% | In line with trend | 8 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0116 | +1.2% | In line with trend | 7 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9813 | -1.9% | In line with trend | 7 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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