Booking Holdings Inc. BKNG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 34 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Booking Holdings Inc. demonstrates a strong correlation between its selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses and revenue growth, with a 1% increase in SG&A resulting in a 0.77% rise in revenue. Despite a recent holdout test indicating a 5.5% prediction error, the company's model maintains a respectable 3.9% MAPE, reflecting solid forecasting capabilities. With a fiscal year revenue forecast of $15 billion, representing a 19.8% year-over-year increase, the outlook remains positive as the company effectively leverages its spending to drive growth. Investors can anticipate continued revenue expansion as the company capitalizes on its operational efficiencies and market demand.

Next FY Revenue

$15.19B

+19.8% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

0.77x

Model Accuracy

3.9% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $3B vs the actual $3B — an error of 5.5%.

Note: Booking Holdings Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2017	$3B	$3B	$3B – $3B	+25.9%	✓ In range
Q2 2018	$3B		$3B – $3B	+25.2%
Q3 2018	$4B		$3B – $4B	+22.9%
Q4 2018	$5B		$4B – $6B	+12.7%
Q1 2019	$3B		$3B – $4B	+23.0%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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