Conagra Brands, Inc. CAG
Revenue Intelligence Report • 30 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Conagra Brands, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $12B, a +1.2% year-over-year change, based on 30 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model has 110.2% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 110.2% MAPE, the model captures Conagra Brands, Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors.
Next FY Revenue
$12.0B
+1.2% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$-14.16 per $1
Model Accuracy
110.2% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.1B vs the actual $2.8B — an error of 8.2%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note:
Conagra Brands, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $3.1B | $2.8B | $2.3B – $3.8B | -4.2% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2025 | $3.0B | $2.0B – $4.0B | -1.1% | ||
| Q3 2025 | $3.0B | $1.7B – $4.3B | +7.1% | ||
| Q4 2025 | $3.0B | $1.6B – $4.5B | -5.7% | ||
| Q1 2026 | $3.0B | $1.4B – $4.6B | +5.8% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Conagra Brands, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.1173 | +11.7% | +11.7% above trend | 9 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.949 | -5.1% | -5.1% below trend | 9 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9286 | -7.1% | -7.1% below trend | 8 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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