Church & Dwight Co., Inc. CHD
Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $6.6B, a +6.2% year-over-year change, based on 36 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D (elasticity 0.71x) and SG&A (elasticity 0.43x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 1.6% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Church & Dwight Co., Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (1.6% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. R&D investment shows a 0.71x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 0.71% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.43x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.5B – $1.7B | +1.3% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B | $1.5B – $1.7B | +10.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.6B | $1.5B – $1.8B | +8.8% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.7B | $1.5B – $1.8B | +4.5% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.7B | $1.5B – $1.8B | +1.9% |
Seasonal Factors
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9992 | -0.1% | In line with trend | 9 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.003 | +0.3% | In line with trend | 9 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9925 | -0.7% | In line with trend | 8 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9968 | -0.3% | In line with trend | 9 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
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