Costco Wholesale Corp /New COST

Revenue Intelligence Report • 47 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Costco Wholesale Corp's revenue growth is primarily driven by strategic increases in selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A), which have demonstrated a strong elasticity effect, yielding a 1.07% revenue increase for every 1% rise in SG&A. The company's recent quarterly revenue of $67.3 billion reflects its robust operational model, despite a 6.8% error in holdout testing, indicating room for improvement in predictive accuracy. With a fiscal year forecast projecting $281 billion in revenue, representing an 11.7% year-over-year growth, Costco is well-positioned for continued expansion. Investors can expect a favorable return on investment as the company effectively leverages its spending to drive sales growth.

Next FY Revenue
$280.66B
+11.7% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.07x
Model Accuracy
1.6% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $63B vs the actual $67B — an error of 6.8%.
Note: Costco Wholesale Corp /New does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

COST Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 2025 $63B $67B $60B – $65B +8.5% ✗ Outside range
Q1 2026 $68B $64B – $72B +16.4%
Q2 2026 $67B $63B – $73B +8.5%
Q3 2026 $73B $67B – $79B +14.8%
Q4 2026 $73B $66B – $80B +7.9%

How Spending Drives Revenue

COST Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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