What is CSCO's forecasted revenue?

Cisco Systems, Inc. is forecasted to generate $63.2B in FY revenue, representing +8.3% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the CSCO revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 1.5% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $15B versus the actual $15B.

Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCO

Revenue Intelligence Report • 38 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Cisco Systems, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $63B, a +8.3% year-over-year change, based on 38 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D ($5.92 per $1) and SG&A ($2.27 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 1.5% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Cisco Systems, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (1.5% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $5.92 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $2.27 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$63.2B

+8.3% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$5.92 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$2.27 per $1

Model Accuracy

1.5% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $15B vs the actual $15B — an error of 0.7%.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q1 2026	$15B	$15B	$15B – $16B	+11.6%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$16B		$15B – $16B	+12.4%
Q3 2026	$16B		$15B – $17B	+12.4%
Q4 2026	$16B		$15B – $17B	+6.4%
Q1 2027	$16B		$15B – $17B	+2.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Cisco Systems, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	0.9994	-0.1%	In line with trend	11
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	0.9964	-0.4%	In line with trend	12
FQ3 (Mar–May)	1.001	+0.1%	In line with trend	11
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0	+0.0%	In line with trend	0

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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