Deere & Co DE

Revenue Intelligence Report • 53 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue growth is driven by spending choices, with 1% more SG&A associated with 1.14% higher revenue and 1% more R&D associated with 0.67% higher revenue in a log-log framework. The latest quarter posted about $9.611B in revenue, and the model—built on 53 quarters of data with 4.9% MAPE—shows solid predictive power, with holdout results of $9.8B versus actual $9.6B (−2.4% error). The FY outlook is strong, with a revenue forecast near $50B, up 17.2% year over year, implying durable upside from scalable operations and the ROI of SG&A investments. Investors should monitor how efficiently SG&A investments translate into revenue gains, as the data suggest SG&A is the more levered near-term driver, while R&D remains a smaller but still meaningful contributor.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.9% MAPE), suggesting Deere & Co's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D investment shows a 0.67x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 0.67% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.14x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$50.3B
+17.2% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.67x
SG&A Elasticity
1.14x
Model Accuracy
4.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $9.8B vs the actual $9.6B — an error of 2.4%.

Revenue Forecast

DE Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $9.8B $9.6B $8.7B – $11B -25.1% ✓ In range
Q1 2026 $13B $11B – $15B +49.4%
Q2 2026 $13B $10B – $15B -2.0%
Q3 2026 $11B $9.1B – $15B -4.4%
Q4 2026 $14B $10B – $18B +41.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Deere & Co's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0 +0.0% In line with trend 0
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 0.9855 -1.5% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Mar–May) 1.0139 +1.4% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0147 +1.5% In line with trend 16

How Spending Drives Revenue

DE Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 53 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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