Dollar Tree, Inc. DLTR
Revenue Intelligence Report • 64 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Dollar Tree, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $29B, a +52.4% year-over-year change, based on 64 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($6.34 per $1). The ARDL model has 7309.3% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 7309.3% MAPE, the model captures Dollar Tree, Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $6.34 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$28.9B
+52.4% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$6.34 per $1
Model Accuracy
7309.3% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $5.7B vs the actual $4.8B — an error of 19.4%.
Note:
Dollar Tree, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($4.8B) came in 19% below the spending-based forecast ($5.7B). This suggests spending is not yet translating to revenue at historical rates.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $5.7B | $4.8B | $3.4B – $8.0B | +30.7% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $6.3B | $3.1B – $9.6B | +26.9% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $7.0B | $3.0B – $11B | +51.0% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $7.4B | $2.8B – $12B | +62.0% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $8.1B | $3.0B – $13B | +71.3% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Dollar Tree, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9481 | -5.2% | -5.2% below trend | 11 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | -0.017 | -101.7% | -101.7% below trend | 7 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0055 | +0.6% | In line with trend | 10 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9676 | -3.2% | -3.2% below trend | 11 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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