Emcor Group, Inc. EME
Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Emcor Group, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $19B, a +14.6% year-over-year change, based on 66 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.93x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.2% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Emcor Group, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.2% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.93x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$19.5B
+14.6% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.93x
Model Accuracy
2.2% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $4.5B vs the actual $4.5B — an error of 0.0%.
Note:
Emcor Group, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $4.5B | $4.5B | $4.3B – $4.8B | +19.7% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B | $4.3B – $5.0B | +19.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $4.8B | $4.3B – $5.3B | +11.1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $4.9B | $4.4B – $5.5B | +14.8% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $5.1B | $4.5B – $5.8B | +13.5% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Emcor Group, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0039 | +0.4% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0032 | +0.3% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9823 | -1.8% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0043 | +0.4% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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