Epam Systems, Inc. EPAM
Revenue Intelligence Report • 60 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Epam Systems, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $6.1B, a +11.0% year-over-year change, based on 60 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.67x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.3% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Epam Systems, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.3% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.67x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$6.06B
+11.0% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.67x
Model Accuracy
2.3% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.4B vs the actual $1.4B — an error of 1.1%.
Note:
Epam Systems, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.3B – $1.5B | +14.0% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | $1.3B – $1.6B | +12.1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | $1.4B – $1.6B | +10.5% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.5B | $1.4B – $1.7B | +9.9% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.6B | $1.4B – $1.8B | +11.6% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Epam Systems, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0126 | +1.3% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0072 | +0.7% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9827 | -1.7% | In line with trend | 14 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9957 | -0.4% | In line with trend | 15 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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