Intuit Inc. INTU
Revenue Intelligence Report • 53 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Intuit Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $26B, a +27.0% year-over-year change, based on 53 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($3.41 per $1). The ARDL model has 5.5% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.5% MAPE), suggesting Intuit Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $3.41 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$25.7B
+27.0% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-0.67 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$3.41 per $1
Model Accuracy
5.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $4.6B vs the actual $4.7B — an error of 0.6%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B | $4.7B | $4.4B – $4.9B | +40.9% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $7.7B | $7.3B – $8.1B | +94.2% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $4.9B | $4.5B – $5.4B | -36.6% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $5.0B | $4.5B – $5.5B | +28.4% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $8.1B | $7.5B – $8.7B | +74.7% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Intuit Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0027 | +0.3% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0134 | +1.3% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0088 | +0.9% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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