Gartner, Inc. IT
Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Gartner, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $6.9B, a +5.9% year-over-year change, based on 66 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.89x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.7% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Gartner, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.7% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.89x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$6.88B
+5.9% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.89x
Model Accuracy
2.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.7B vs the actual $1.8B — an error of 2.4%.
Note:
Gartner, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.6B – $1.8B | -0.2% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B | $1.5B – $1.8B | +7.1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.8B | $1.6B – $2.0B | +5.1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.7B | $1.4B – $1.9B | +9.2% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.8B | $1.5B – $2.1B | +2.5% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Gartner, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9995 | -0.0% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.018 | +1.8% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0003 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9888 | -1.1% | In line with trend | 15 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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