Johnson Controls International Plc JCI
Revenue Intelligence Report • 52 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Johnson Controls International Plc has a forecasted full-year revenue of $21B, a -10.1% year-over-year change, based on 52 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.06x). The ARDL model has 9.8% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 9.8% MAPE, the model captures Johnson Controls International Plc's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.06x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$20.6B
-10.1% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.06x
Model Accuracy
9.8% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $5.6B vs the actual $5.8B — an error of 2.9%.
Note:
Johnson Controls International Plc does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $5.6B | $5.8B | $4.3B – $7.3B | -4.6% | ✓ In range |
| Q4 2025 | $5.4B | $3.7B – $7.8B | -0.7% | ||
| Q1 2026 | $5.2B | $3.3B – $8.3B | -8.1% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $5.1B | $3.0B – $8.6B | -16.1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $5.0B | $2.7B – $9.0B | -14.6% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Johnson Controls International Plc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9385 | -6.1% | -6.1% below trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9895 | -1.0% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0288 | +2.9% | In line with trend | 17 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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