Mcdonald’s corporation MCD
Revenue Intelligence Report • 54 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Mcdonald’s corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $29B, a +7.3% year-over-year change, based on 54 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($8.09 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.9% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Mcdonald’s corporation's revenue with exceptional precision (2.9% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $8.09 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$28.8B
+7.3% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$8.09 per $1
Model Accuracy
2.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $6.6B vs the actual $7.0B — an error of 6.0%.
Note:
Mcdonald’s corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $6.6B | $7.0B | $6.1B – $7.0B | +3.1% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $6.9B | $6.2B – $7.5B | +15.4% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $7.3B | $6.5B – $8.1B | +7.2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $7.3B | $6.4B – $8.3B | +3.8% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $7.3B | $6.3B – $8.3B | +3.9% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Mcdonald’s corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0171 | +1.7% | In line with trend | 13 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9969 | -0.3% | In line with trend | 13 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.998 | -0.2% | In line with trend | 12 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0171 | +1.7% | In line with trend | 12 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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