Nordson Corporation NDSN
Revenue Intelligence Report • 50 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Nordson Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $3.1B, a +12.6% year-over-year change, based on 50 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 1.25x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 4.1% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.1% MAPE), suggesting Nordson Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.25x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$3.05B
+12.6% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
1.25x
Model Accuracy
4.1% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $703B vs the actual $669B — an error of 5.0%.
Note:
Nordson Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $703B | $669B | $637B – $776B | +6.3% | ✓ In range |
| Q1 2026 | $734B | $638B – $844B | +19.2% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $791B | $666B – $939B | +15.8% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $751B | $616B – $915B | +1.3% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $776B | $622B – $968B | +15.9% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Nordson Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0008 | +0.1% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0096 | +1.0% | In line with trend | 15 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9997 | -0.0% | In line with trend | 15 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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