On Semiconductor Corporation ON
Revenue Intelligence Report • 62 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
On Semiconductor Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $6.3B, a +5.6% year-over-year change, based on 62 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($13.08 per $1). The ARDL model has 72.4% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 72.4% MAPE, the model captures On Semiconductor Corporation's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $13.08 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$6.33B
+5.6% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$13.08 per $1
Model Accuracy
72.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.5B vs the actual $1.5B — an error of 1.2%.
Note:
On Semiconductor Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.3B – $1.8B | -10.1% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B | $1.2B – $2.0B | +9.0% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.6B | $1.1B – $2.1B | +8.0% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $1.6B | $1.0B – $2.2B | +2.1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $1.6B | $0.9B – $2.2B | +3.5% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture On Semiconductor Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0369 | +3.7% | +3.7% above trend | 15 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9985 | -0.2% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9642 | -3.6% | -3.6% below trend | 13 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0082 | +0.8% | In line with trend | 14 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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