What is ORCL's forecasted revenue?

Oracle Corporation is forecasted to generate $80.8B in FY revenue, representing +29.7% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the ORCL revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 2.1% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $17B versus the actual $17B.

Oracle Corporation ORCL

Revenue Intelligence Report • 48 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

The revenue model identifies SG&A investments as the primary driver, with a 1% rise in SG&A associated with a 3.31% lift in revenue, while R&D shows a negative elasticity of -0.61% per 1% increase. The model is a log-log specification with 2.1% MAPE, and a holdout test predicted the latest quarter at about $17.0B versus actual $17.19B, a 2.5% error, indicating solid near-term accuracy. The most recent quarterly revenue printed at $17.19B, confirming the current scale of operations. The FY outlook projects $81B in revenue, up about 29.7% year over year, signaling a strong growth trajectory driven by SG&A-led momentum, with R&D still yielding limited incremental revenue in this framework and potential optimization opportunities.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Oracle Corporation's revenue with exceptional precision (2.1% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-0.61x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue. Sales & marketing spend shows a 3.31x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue

$80.8B

+29.7% YoY

R&D Elasticity

-0.61x

SG&A Elasticity

3.31x

Model Accuracy

2.1% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $17B vs the actual $17B — an error of 2.5%.

⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q1 2026	$17B	$17B	$16B – $18B	+19.2%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$18B		$17B – $19B	+26.5%
Q3 2026	$19B		$18B – $21B	+29.3%
Q4 2026	$21B		$19B – $23B	+29.8%
Q1 2027	$23B		$20B – $25B	+32.6%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Oracle Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0156	+1.6%	In line with trend	15
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0028	+0.3%	In line with trend	15
FQ3 (Mar–May)	1.0	+0.0%	In line with trend	0
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0022	+0.2%	In line with trend	15

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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