Otis Worldwide Corporation OTIS
Revenue Intelligence Report • 28 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Otis Worldwide Corporation has a forecasted full-year revenue of $16B, a +10.0% year-over-year change, based on 28 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($9.79 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 1.2% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Otis Worldwide Corporation's revenue with exceptional precision (1.2% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $9.79 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$15.9B
+10.0% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$-170.24 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$9.79 per $1
Model Accuracy
1.2% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.9B vs the actual $3.8B — an error of 2.2%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $3.9B | $3.8B | $3.8B – $4.0B | +5.5% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $3.9B | $3.7B – $4.1B | +15.9% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $3.9B | $3.7B – $4.1B | +8.9% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $4.0B | $3.7B – $4.2B | +8.3% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $4.1B | $3.8B – $4.4B | +7.4% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Otis Worldwide Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.005 | +0.5% | In line with trend | 6 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0007 | +0.1% | In line with trend | 6 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9951 | -0.5% | In line with trend | 6 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0025 | +0.2% | In line with trend | 6 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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