Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW

Revenue Intelligence Report • 53 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Palo Alto Networks, Inc has a forecasted full-year revenue of $11B, a +17.8% year-over-year change, based on 53 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D ($3.29 per $1) and SG&A ($2.56 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.5% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Palo Alto Networks, Inc's revenue with exceptional precision (2.5% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $3.29 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $2.56 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue
$11.3B
+17.8% YoY
R&D Multiplier
$3.29 per $1
SG&A Multiplier
$2.56 per $1
Model Accuracy
2.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.6B vs the actual $2.6B — an error of 0.9%.

Revenue Forecast

PANW Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 2026 $2.6B $2.6B $2.5B – $2.6B +20.2% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $2.7B $2.7B – $2.8B +20.2%
Q3 2026 $2.7B $2.7B – $2.8B +19.9%
Q4 2026 $2.9B $2.8B – $3.0B +16.2%
Q1 2027 $3.0B $2.9B – $3.1B +15.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Palo Alto Networks, Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0022 +0.2% In line with trend 14
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.0044 +0.4% In line with trend 14
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9915 -0.8% In line with trend 13
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0156 +1.6% In line with trend 8

How Spending Drives Revenue

PANW Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (linear) with 53 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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