Paycom Software, Inc. PAYC

Revenue Intelligence Report • 44 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven modestly by R&D and more by SG&A investments, with elasticities of 0.05 and 0.21 per 1% spending, respectively, in a log-log model. That implies a very small ROI from R&D (0.05% revenue lift per 1% R&D spend) and a somewhat larger but still modest lift from SG&A (0.21% per 1% SG&A), highlighting SG&A efficiency as the more potent driver of topline growth. The model’s holdout accuracy shows a -4.5% miss (predicted 454M vs actual 435M) and an overall MAPE of 3.7%, indicating reasonable predictive performance. The FY revenue forecast is $2,084M, up 23.0% year over year, suggesting solid top-line momentum with growth primarily emerging from SG&A-driven lift and a modest contribution from R&D.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.7% MAPE), suggesting Paycom Software, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D investment shows a 0.05x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 0.05% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.21x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$2.08B
+23.0% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.05x
SG&A Elasticity
0.21x
Model Accuracy
3.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $454B vs the actual $435B — an error of 4.5%.

Revenue Forecast

PAYC Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2023 $454B $435B $411B – $502B +22.5% ✓ In range
Q2 2024 $536B $466B – $618B +18.7%
Q3 2024 $499B $419B – $593B +24.3%
Q4 2024 $498B $407B – $608B +22.5%
Q1 2025 $552B $441B – $690B +26.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Paycom Software, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0143 +1.4% In line with trend 10
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.0151 +1.5% In line with trend 10
FQ3 (Mar–May) 1.0062 +0.6% In line with trend 10
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0101 +1.0% In line with trend 10

How Spending Drives Revenue

PAYC Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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