Paccar Inc PCAR
Revenue Intelligence Report • 8 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Paccar Inc has a forecasted full-year revenue of $23B, a -18.7% year-over-year change, based on 8 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 7.37x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.4% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.4% MAPE), suggesting Paccar Inc's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 7.37x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$23.1B
-18.7% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
7.37x
Model Accuracy
3.4% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $6.4B vs the actual $6.8B — an error of 5.8%.
Note:
Paccar Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $6.4B | $6.8B | $5.9B – $6.9B | -18.8% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $6.2B | $5.5B – $6.9B | -17.2% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $5.9B | $5.2B – $6.8B | -21.4% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $5.6B | $4.8B – $6.6B | -15.3% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $5.4B | $4.5B – $6.4B | -20.8% |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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