Paccar Inc PCAR

Revenue Intelligence Report • 8 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Paccar Inc's revenue is significantly driven by its strategic management of selling, general, and administrative expenses, with a 1% increase in SG&A correlating to a 7.72% rise in revenue, indicating strong elasticity in its revenue model. Despite a recent quarterly revenue of $6.82 billion and a forecasted full-year revenue of $23 billion, which reflects an 18.7% year-over-year decline, the company's model accuracy is promising with a 3.4% MAPE. The holdout test showed a relatively close prediction, suggesting a reliable forecasting capability. Investors should consider the potential for revenue recovery as Paccar continues to optimize its spending and leverage its operational efficiencies.

Next FY Revenue

$23.12B

-18.7% YoY

SG&A Elasticity

7.72x

Model Accuracy

3.4% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $6B vs the actual $7B — an error of 5.8%.

Note: Paccar Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$6B	$7B	$6B – $7B	-18.8%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$6B		$6B – $7B	-17.2%
Q3 2026	$6B		$5B – $7B	-21.4%
Q4 2026	$6B		$5B – $7B	-15.3%
Q1 2027	$5B		$5B – $6B	-20.8%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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