Procter & Gamble Co PG
Revenue Intelligence Report • 53 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Procter & Gamble Co has a forecasted full-year revenue of $85B, a -1.6% year-over-year change, based on 53 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.17x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 2.2% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Procter & Gamble Co's revenue with exceptional precision (2.2% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.17x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$84.9B
-1.6% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.17x
Model Accuracy
2.2% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $22B vs the actual $22B — an error of 0.2%.
Note:
Procter & Gamble Co does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $22B | $22B | $21B – $23B | +1.9% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $20B | $19B – $22B | -8.0% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $22B | $20B – $25B | +13.2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $22B | $20B – $25B | -0.8% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $20B | $18B – $23B | -9.2% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Procter & Gamble Co's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.003 | +0.3% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9992 | -0.1% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.987 | -1.3% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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