Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR
Revenue Intelligence Report • 25 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Palantir Technologies Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $9.8B, a +119.6% year-over-year change, based on 25 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D ($20.96 per $1) and SG&A ($92.58 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 1.3% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Palantir Technologies Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (1.3% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $20.96 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $92.58 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.4B – $1.4B | +66.9% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | $1.7B – $1.7B | +90.6% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.1B | $2.1B – $2.1B | +109.2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $2.6B | $2.6B – $2.7B | +124.0% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $3.4B | $3.3B – $3.4B | +141.6% |
Seasonal Factors
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0026 | +0.3% | In line with trend | 5 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0106 | +1.1% | In line with trend | 6 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0038 | +0.4% | In line with trend | 5 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 0.9988 | -0.1% | In line with trend | 5 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
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