Qualcomm Inc/De QCOM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 53 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

Qualcomm Inc's revenue is primarily driven by its investments in research and development (R&D) and selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A), with elasticities indicating a significant return on these expenditures. A 1% increase in R&D yields a 0.99% revenue increase, while a 1% rise in SG&A results in a 1.67% revenue boost, highlighting the effective allocation of resources. Despite a forecasted revenue decline of 10.6% year-over-year to $40 billion, the company's recent quarterly revenue of $12.25 billion suggests potential for recovery, although the 17.6% error in holdout predictions indicates some uncertainty in future performance. Investors should closely monitor the company's spending strategies and market conditions as they assess Qualcomm's growth trajectory.

Next FY Revenue
$40.48B
-10.6% YoY
R&D Elasticity
0.99x
SG&A Elasticity
1.67x
Model Accuracy
10.1% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $10B vs the actual $12B — an error of 17.6%.
Investor insight: Actual revenue ($12B) came in 18% above the spending-based forecast ($10B). This suggests that Qualcomm Inc/De's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

QCOM Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q3 2025 $10B $12B $8B – $13B +7.5% ✓ In range
Q4 2025 $10B $7B – $15B -13.7%
Q1 2026 $10B $6B – $16B -8.0%
Q2 2026 $10B $6B – $17B -2.2%
Q3 2026 $10B $6B – $18B -17.0%

How Spending Drives Revenue

QCOM Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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