What is QCOM's forecasted revenue?

Qualcomm Inc/De is forecasted to generate $40.5B in FY revenue, representing -10.6% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the QCOM revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 10.1% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $10B versus the actual $12B.

Qualcomm Inc/De QCOM

Revenue Intelligence Report • 53 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Qualcomm Inc/De has a forecasted full-year revenue of $40B, a -10.6% year-over-year change, based on 53 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D (elasticity 0.99x) and SG&A (elasticity 1.67x). The ARDL model has 10.1% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

At 10.1% MAPE, the model captures Qualcomm Inc/De's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. R&D investment shows a 0.99x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 0.99% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.67x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue

$40.5B

-10.6% YoY

R&D Elasticity

0.99x

SG&A Elasticity

1.67x

Model Accuracy

10.1% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $10B vs the actual $12B — an error of 17.6%.

Investor insight: Actual revenue ($12B) came in 18% above the spending-based forecast ($10B). This suggests that Qualcomm Inc/De's recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q3 2025	$10B	$12B	$7.8B – $13B	+7.5%	✓ In range
Q4 2025	$10B		$7.0B – $15B	-13.7%
Q1 2026	$10B		$6.4B – $16B	-8.0%
Q2 2026	$10B		$6.0B – $17B	-2.2%
Q3 2026	$10B		$5.7B – $18B	-17.0%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Qualcomm Inc/De's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0	+0.0%	In line with trend	0
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0878	+8.8%	+8.8% above trend	18
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9714	-2.9%	In line with trend	17
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.013	+1.3%	In line with trend	17

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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