Ross Stores, Inc. ROST

Revenue Intelligence Report • 67 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Based on 67 quarters of data, revenue appears driven primarily by SG&A efficiency, with the model attributing $6.32 of long-run revenue to each $1 of SG&A spend, signaling a high ROI on operating expenses. The modeling framework is linear, with a 5.5% MAPE and a holdout error of 11.7% (predicted 4.9B vs actual 5.6B), indicating moderate accuracy and some near-term uncertainty. Latest quarterly revenue stands at $5.6B, while the FY forecast is $22B, down 2.1% year over year. The outlook suggests that sustained SG&A efficiency can support revenue despite near-term softness, but investors should monitor pricing, traffic, and competitive dynamics in the discount retail sector given the model’s uncertainty.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (5.5% MAPE), suggesting Ross Stores, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $6.32 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue
$21.6B
-2.1% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$6.32 per $1
Model Accuracy
5.5% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $4.9B vs the actual $5.6B — an error of 11.7%.
Note: Ross Stores, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

ROST Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $4.9B $5.6B $4.5B – $5.4B -2.5% ✗ Outside range
Q1 2026 $5.6B $4.9B – $6.3B -6.0%
Q2 2026 $5.2B $4.4B – $6.1B +4.5%
Q3 2026 $5.5B $4.6B – $6.5B +0.4%
Q4 2026 $5.3B $4.1B – $6.4B -6.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Ross Stores, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0067 +0.7% In line with trend 16
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.0674 +6.7% +6.7% above trend 15
FQ3 (Mar–May) 1.0132 +1.3% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 0.9547 -4.5% -4.5% below trend 16

How Spending Drives Revenue

ROST Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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