Republic Services, Inc. RSG

Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue growth is being driven, in part, by SG&A investments, with a log-log elasticity of about 0.58, meaning a 1% rise in SG&A is associated with roughly 0.58% higher revenue. That SG&A-driven revenue lever implies a moderate ROI from selling and administration spend, though profitability depends on margins not provided. The model shows solid predictive performance, with a 2.9% MAPE and a holdout test of predicted $4.8B vs actual $4.7B (-0.8% error). The FY revenue forecast is $20B, up about 2.9% year over year, indicating a steady growth trajectory supported by the same revenue-driving dynamic.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Republic Services, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (2.9% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.58x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$19.6B
+2.9% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.58x
Model Accuracy
2.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $4.8B vs the actual $4.7B — an error of 0.8%.
Note: Republic Services, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

RSG Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $4.8B $4.7B $4.4B – $5.2B +2.7% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $4.8B $4.3B – $5.4B +4.4%
Q3 2026 $4.9B $4.2B – $5.7B +0.5%
Q4 2026 $4.9B $4.2B – $5.8B +2.3%
Q1 2027 $4.9B $4.1B – $5.9B +4.5%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Republic Services, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0125 +1.2% In line with trend 17
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 0.9778 -2.2% In line with trend 17
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9772 -2.3% In line with trend 16
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0128 +1.3% In line with trend 16

How Spending Drives Revenue

RSG Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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