Super Micro Computer, Inc. SMCI

Revenue Intelligence Report • 47 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Super Micro Computer, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $57B, a +103.3% year-over-year change, based on 47 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include R&D (elasticity 3.25x) and SG&A (elasticity 1.75x). The ARDL model has 8.7% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

At 8.7% MAPE, the model captures Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. R&D investment shows a 3.25x multiplier — each 1% increase in R&D spend is associated with a 3.25% revenue increase, signaling strong innovation-to-revenue conversion. Sales & marketing spend shows a 1.75x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$56.9B
+103.3% YoY
R&D Elasticity
3.25x
SG&A Elasticity
1.75x
Model Accuracy
8.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $11B vs the actual $13B — an error of 13.0%.

Revenue Forecast

SMCI Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $11B $13B $8.9B – $14B +85.9% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $14B $10B – $19B +144.9%
Q3 2026 $9.9B $6.8B – $14B +115.5%
Q4 2026 $12B $7.9B – $19B +141.1%
Q1 2027 $21B $13B – $34B +65.3%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0688 +6.9% +6.9% above trend 14
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 0.9795 -2.0% In line with trend 15
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9801 -2.0% In line with trend 14
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0 +0.0% In line with trend 0

How Spending Drives Revenue

SMCI Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

Want this analysis for your portfolio?

I build custom revenue intelligence reports for investors and companies using SEC filing data, econometric modeling, and AI-powered insights.

Get in Touch

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 47 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

More in AI Infrastructure

DDOG ANET PLTR AVGO LRCX ON NVDA PANW