Skyworks Solutions, Inc. SWKS
Revenue Intelligence Report • 51 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Skyworks Solutions, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $3.9B, a -3.5% year-over-year change, based on 51 quarters of SEC filing data. The ARDL model has 6.1% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (6.1% MAPE), suggesting Skyworks Solutions, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-0.16x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue.
Next FY Revenue
$3.88B
-3.5% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.16x
SG&A Elasticity
-0.07x
Model Accuracy
6.1% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.1B vs the actual $1.0B — an error of 5.4%.
⚠ Model limitation:
This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.1B | $1.0B | $0.9B – $1.3B | +20.6% | ✓ In range |
| Q4 2025 | $1.0B | $0.8B – $1.3B | -6.1% | ||
| Q1 2026 | $0.9B | $0.7B – $1.3B | -2.0% | ||
| Q2 2026 | $1.0B | $0.7B – $1.4B | +2.9% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $1.0B | $0.6B – $1.4B | -8.2% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Skyworks Solutions, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0 | +0.0% | In line with trend | 0 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0025 | +0.3% | In line with trend | 16 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9648 | -3.5% | -3.5% below trend | 15 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0027 | +0.3% | In line with trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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