Tko Group Holdings, Inc. TKO
Revenue Intelligence Report • 13 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Tko Group Holdings, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $1.9B, a -59.7% year-over-year change, based on 13 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($2.94 per $1). The ARDL model has 11.6% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
At 11.6% MAPE, the model captures Tko Group Holdings, Inc.'s broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $2.94 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$1.91B
-59.7% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$2.94 per $1
Model Accuracy
11.6% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $0.7B vs the actual $1.0B — an error of 34.3%.
Note:
Tko Group Holdings, Inc. does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Investor insight:
Actual revenue ($1.0B) came in 34% above the spending-based forecast ($0.7B). This suggests that Tko Group Holdings, Inc.'s recent revenue growth is driven significantly by external demand factors — such as market pricing, product cycle tailwinds, or structural demand shifts — beyond what its R&D and SG&A spending alone would predict.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $0.7B | $1.0B | $0.5B – $0.9B | -26.6% | ✗ Outside range |
| Q2 2026 | $0.8B | $0.5B – $1.1B | -37.2% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $0.5B | $0.1B – $0.9B | -62.5% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $0.4B | $-0.1B – $0.8B | -66.1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $0.2B | $-0.3B – $0.7B | -76.9% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Tko Group Holdings, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9815 | -1.9% | In line with trend | 3 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9307 | -6.9% | -6.9% below trend | 3 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.092 | +9.2% | +9.2% above trend | 2 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.2232 | +22.3% | +22.3% above trend | 3 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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