Tyler Technologies, Inc TYL
Revenue Intelligence Report • 16 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Tyler Technologies, Inc has a forecasted full-year revenue of $2.5B, a +7.0% year-over-year change, based on 16 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A ($7.44 per $1). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 1.3% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
Our ARDL model tracks Tyler Technologies, Inc's revenue with exceptional precision (1.3% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $7.44 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.
Next FY Revenue
$2.50B
+7.0% YoY
SG&A Multiplier
$7.44 per $1
Model Accuracy
1.3% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $585B vs the actual $575B — an error of 1.7%.
Note:
Tyler Technologies, Inc does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $585B | $575B | $570B – $601B | +8.1% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $605B | $583B – $627B | +7.1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $636B | $609B – $663B | +6.7% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $633B | $601B – $664B | +6.2% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $622B | $587B – $657B | +8.2% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Tyler Technologies, Inc's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 0.9985 | -0.1% | In line with trend | 3 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 0.9887 | -1.1% | In line with trend | 4 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 1.0058 | +0.6% | In line with trend | 3 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0028 | +0.3% | In line with trend | 3 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.
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