Vulcan Materials Company VMC
Revenue Intelligence Report • 70 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15
Vulcan Materials Company has a forecasted full-year revenue of $8.2B, a +3.5% year-over-year change, based on 70 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.19x). The ARDL model has 6.6% MAPE.
Investment Thesis
The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (6.6% MAPE), suggesting Vulcan Materials Company's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.19x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.
Next FY Revenue
$8.22B
+3.5% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
0.19x
Model Accuracy
6.6% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.9B vs the actual $1.9B — an error of 0.8%.
Note:
Vulcan Materials Company does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.
Revenue Forecast
Quarterly Detail
| Quarter | Model Forecast | Actual | 95% Range | YoY Growth | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.9B | $1.9B | $1.6B – $2.3B | +4.0% | ✓ In range |
| Q2 2026 | $1.8B | $1.4B – $2.3B | +10.7% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $2.1B | $1.6B – $2.8B | +0.5% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $2.3B | $1.6B – $3.2B | -1.0% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $2.0B | $1.4B – $2.9B | +6.0% |
Seasonal Factors
Multiplicative seasonal adjustment:
These factors capture Vulcan Materials Company's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model.
A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below.
Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
| Fiscal Quarter | Seasonal Factor | vs Trend | Interpretation | Obs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FQ1 (Sep–Nov) | 1.0101 | +1.0% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ2 (Dec–Feb) | 1.0101 | +1.0% | In line with trend | 17 |
| FQ3 (Mar–May) | 0.9632 | -3.7% | -3.7% below trend | 16 |
| FQ4 (Jun–Aug) | 1.0773 | +7.7% | +7.7% above trend | 16 |
How Spending Drives Revenue
Reading this chart:
Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.
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