Workday, Inc. WDAY

Revenue Intelligence Report • 48 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Workday, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $11B, a +11.4% year-over-year change, based on 48 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.37x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 1.0% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Workday, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (1.0% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-0.07x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.37x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$10.6B
+11.4% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.07x
SG&A Elasticity
0.37x
Model Accuracy
1.0% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $2.5B vs the actual $2.5B — an error of 1.9%.
⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Revenue Forecast

WDAY Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q1 2026 $2.5B $2.5B $2.4B – $2.6B +12.3% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $2.5B $2.4B – $2.7B +13.7%
Q3 2026 $2.6B $2.5B – $2.8B +11.9%
Q4 2026 $2.7B $2.5B – $2.9B +11.0%
Q1 2027 $2.8B $2.6B – $3.0B +9.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Workday, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 0.999 -0.1% In line with trend 14
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 0.9972 -0.3% In line with trend 5
FQ3 (Mar–May) 1.0013 +0.1% In line with trend 13
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 0.9995 -0.1% In line with trend 13

How Spending Drives Revenue

WDAY Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 48 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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