What is WYNN's forecasted revenue?

Wynn Resorts, Limited is forecasted to generate $6.63B in FY revenue, representing -7.0% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the WYNN revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 17.3% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $1.8B versus the actual $1.9B.

Wynn Resorts, Limited WYNN

Revenue Intelligence Report • 66 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven by casino gaming and hospitality demand, with the latest quarterly revenue at 1.866 billion dollars. The analysis shows a strong ROI on SG&A spending, with every $1 of SG&A expected to generate $2.33 in long-run revenue. The model is linear and moderately accurate (MAPE 17.3%), with a holdout test predicting 1.8B vs 1.9B actual (5.8% error), indicating reasonable credibility with some uncertainty. For the full year, revenue is forecast at $6.6B, down 7% year over year, underscoring near-term headwinds and highlighting SG&A efficiency and macro travel demand as key levers for potential upside.

Investment Thesis

At 17.3% MAPE, the model captures Wynn Resorts, Limited's broad revenue trajectory, though quarterly variability suggests sensitivity to external factors. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $2.33 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$6.63B

-7.0% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$2.33 per $1

Model Accuracy

17.3% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $1.8B vs the actual $1.9B — an error of 5.8%.

Note: Wynn Resorts, Limited does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$1.8B	$1.9B	$1.5B – $2.0B	-4.4%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$1.7B		$1.3B – $2.1B	+0.8%
Q3 2026	$1.7B		$1.2B – $2.2B	-3.6%
Q4 2026	$1.6B		$1.1B – $2.2B	-10.7%
Q1 2027	$1.6B		$1.0B – $2.3B	-13.8%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Wynn Resorts, Limited's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	0.9908	-0.9%	In line with trend	16
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0306	+3.1%	+3.1% above trend	16
FQ3 (Mar–May)	1.0022	+0.2%	In line with trend	15
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0064	+0.6%	In line with trend	15

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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