What is AMAT's forecasted revenue?

Applied Materials Inc /De is forecasted to generate $31.8B in FY revenue, representing +11.3% year-over-year growth.

How accurate is the AMAT revenue forecast model?

The ARDL model achieves 3.6% MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error). In a holdout test, it predicted $7.5B versus the actual $7.0B.

Applied Materials Inc /De AMAT

Revenue Intelligence Report • 50 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue is driven by spend efficiency, with each $1 of SG&A generating about $20.58 of long-run revenue and each $1 of R&D generating about $8.97, as estimated by a linear model trained on 50 quarters of data. The latest quarterly revenue was $7.012 billion, and holdout testing produced a predicted $7.5B vs actual $7.0B, a -7.6% error, with a model MAPE of 3.6%. The full-year forecast calls for about $32 billion in revenue, up 11.3% year over year, signaling solid top-line momentum. Taken together, the ROI on SG&A suggests higher efficiency and the forecasted growth supports a constructive outlook for investors.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.6% MAPE), suggesting Applied Materials Inc /De's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. Every $1 of R&D investment is associated with $8.97 of revenue, indicating efficient capital deployment in innovation. Each $1 of SG&A spending generates $20.58 in revenue, reflecting strong commercial efficiency.

Next FY Revenue

$31.8B

+11.3% YoY

R&D Multiplier

$8.97 per $1

SG&A Multiplier

$20.58 per $1

Model Accuracy

3.6% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $7.5B vs the actual $7.0B — an error of 7.6%.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$7.5B	$7.0B	$7.2B – $7.9B	+11.3%	✗ Outside range
Q1 2026	$7.7B		$7.2B – $8.2B	+7.2%
Q2 2026	$7.8B		$7.2B – $8.4B	+10.4%
Q3 2026	$8.0B		$7.4B – $8.7B	+10.2%
Q4 2026	$8.2B		$7.5B – $9.0B	+17.4%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Applied Materials Inc /De's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.

Fiscal Quarter	Seasonal Factor	vs Trend	Interpretation	Obs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov)	1.0	+0.0%	In line with trend	0
FQ2 (Dec–Feb)	1.0082	+0.8%	In line with trend	16
FQ3 (Mar–May)	0.9967	-0.3%	In line with trend	15
FQ4 (Jun–Aug)	1.0071	+0.7%	In line with trend	15

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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