A. O. Smith Corporation AOS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Revenue appears driven by SG&A dynamics, with a 1% uptick in SG&A associated with a 0.68% decrease in revenue, indicating limited or negative ROI from SG&A spending under the current model. The model uses a log-log specification over 36 quarters and delivers solid accuracy, with a 4.0% MAPE and a holdout test error of about -2% (predicted $0.9B vs actual $0.9B), supporting confidence in near-term forecasts. The latest quarterly revenue is approximately $912 million, and full-year revenue is forecast at $3.6 billion, down 5.3% year over year, signaling near-term headwinds. Without R&D data, growth drivers beyond SG&A efficiency are unclear; investors should focus on SG&A optimization and cost discipline to support any upside, given the revenue decline.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (4.0% MAPE), suggesting A. O. Smith Corporation's revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns.

Next FY Revenue
$3.63B
-5.3% YoY
SG&A Elasticity
-0.68x
Model Accuracy
4.0% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $0.9B vs the actual $0.9B — an error of 2.0%.
⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.
Note: A. O. Smith Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

AOS Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $0.9B $0.9B $0.8B – $1.0B +2.0% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $0.9B $0.8B – $1.1B -4.6%
Q3 2026 $0.9B $0.8B – $1.1B -9.9%
Q4 2026 $0.9B $0.7B – $1.1B -4.3%
Q1 2027 $0.9B $0.7B – $1.1B -1.9%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture A. O. Smith Corporation's systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 0.9843 -1.6% In line with trend 9
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 0.9914 -0.9% In line with trend 9
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9779 -2.2% In line with trend 8
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0569 +5.7% +5.7% above trend 9

How Spending Drives Revenue

AOS Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 36 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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