A. O. Smith Corporation AOS

Revenue Intelligence Report • 36 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-06

A. O. Smith Corporation reported a quarterly revenue of $912 million, demonstrating a solid performance despite a forecasted decline of 6.2% year-over-year, with an expected full-year revenue of $4 billion. The company's revenue is primarily driven by its operational efficiency, although SG&A spending has a negative long-run impact on revenue, with each dollar spent resulting in a $17.07 decrease. The model's accuracy, reflected in a 3.1% MAPE and a close holdout prediction, indicates reliable forecasting capabilities. Investors should consider the implications of SG&A management on profitability as the company navigates a challenging market environment.

Next FY Revenue

$3.59B

-6.2% YoY

SG&A Multiplier

$-17.07 per $1

Model Accuracy

3.1% MAPE

Holdout validation: The model predicted $1B vs the actual $1B — an error of 1.0%.

⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Note: A. O. Smith Corporation does not report R&D expenses separately. This analysis uses SG&A spending only.

Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

Quarter	Model Forecast	Actual	95% Range	YoY Growth	Status
Q4 2025	$1B	$1B	$1B – $1B	+1.0%	✓ In range
Q2 2026	$1B		$1B – $1B	-7.7%
Q3 2026	$1B		$1B – $1B	-10.3%
Q4 2026	$1B		$1B – $1B	-4.5%
Q1 2027	$1B		$1B – $1B	-1.9%

How Spending Drives Revenue

Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative revenue generated per $1 spent over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments mature.

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