Axon Enterprise, Inc. AXON

Revenue Intelligence Report • 58 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Axon Enterprise, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $3.8B, a +37.2% year-over-year change, based on 58 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 0.35x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 3.7% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

The econometric model achieves strong accuracy (3.7% MAPE), suggesting Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s revenue trajectory is well-characterized by its spending patterns. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-0.24x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue. Sales & marketing spend shows a 0.35x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$3.81B
+37.2% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.24x
SG&A Elasticity
0.35x
Model Accuracy
3.7% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $0.8B vs the actual $0.8B — an error of 1.8%.
⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Revenue Forecast

AXON Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $0.8B $0.8B $0.7B – $0.9B +36.0% ✓ In range
Q2 2026 $0.9B $0.7B – $1.0B +41.1%
Q3 2026 $0.9B $0.8B – $1.1B +36.2%
Q4 2026 $1.0B $0.8B – $1.2B +37.3%
Q1 2027 $1.1B $0.9B – $1.3B +35.2%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Axon Enterprise, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0013 +0.1% In line with trend 14
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 1.0143 +1.4% In line with trend 14
FQ3 (Mar–May) 0.9826 -1.7% In line with trend 13
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 0.993 -0.7% In line with trend 13

How Spending Drives Revenue

AXON Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 58 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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