Doordash, Inc. DASH

Revenue Intelligence Report • 24 quarters of SEC filing data • Updated 2026-03-15

Doordash, Inc. has a forecasted full-year revenue of $18B, a +29.4% year-over-year change, based on 24 quarters of SEC filing data. Key revenue drivers include SG&A (elasticity 2.23x). The ARDL model achieves strong accuracy at 0.9% MAPE.

Investment Thesis

Our ARDL model tracks Doordash, Inc.'s revenue with exceptional precision (0.9% MAPE), indicating highly predictable cash flows. R&D spending currently shows a negative elasticity (-0.21x), which can indicate heavy investment in long-cycle initiatives not yet reflected in revenue. Sales & marketing spend shows a 2.23x elasticity, suggesting effective go-to-market execution.

Next FY Revenue
$17.7B
+29.4% YoY
R&D Elasticity
-0.21x
SG&A Elasticity
2.23x
Model Accuracy
0.9% MAPE
Holdout validation: The model predicted $3.7B vs the actual $4.0B — an error of 6.9%.
⚠ Model limitation: This company shows negative spending multipliers, meaning increases in spending have not directly translated into revenue growth. This typically occurs with commodity-driven companies or hypergrowth companies.

Revenue Forecast

DASH Revenue Forecast

Quarterly Detail

QuarterModel ForecastActual95% RangeYoY GrowthStatus
Q4 2025 $3.7B $4.0B $3.6B – $3.8B +28.2% ✗ Outside range
Q2 2026 $4.0B $3.9B – $4.2B +32.2%
Q3 2026 $4.3B $4.1B – $4.4B +29.7%
Q4 2026 $4.5B $4.3B – $4.8B +31.9%
Q1 2027 $4.9B $4.7B – $5.2B +24.7%

Seasonal Factors

Multiplicative seasonal adjustment: These factors capture Doordash, Inc.'s systematic quarterly revenue patterns relative to the trend model. A factor of 1.05 means that quarter typically runs 5% above the underlying trend; 0.95 means 5% below. Factors are computed as the median of (actual / fitted) across all available quarters.
Fiscal QuarterSeasonal Factorvs TrendInterpretationObs.
FQ1 (Sep–Nov) 1.0022 +0.2% In line with trend 5
FQ2 (Dec–Feb) 0.9946 -0.5% In line with trend 5
FQ3 (Mar–May) 1.0012 +0.1% In line with trend 5
FQ4 (Jun–Aug) 1.0003 +0.0% In line with trend 5

How Spending Drives Revenue

DASH Spending Timing
Reading this chart: Each line shows the cumulative elasticity — how a 1% increase in spending translates to revenue growth over subsequent quarters. The effect builds over 4-5 quarters as investments compound.

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Data sourced from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings. Model: ARDL (log-log) with 24 quarters. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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